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Sample text

The first class of monetary models, which have been widely applied in empirical studies of exchange rate behavior, expresses the current exchange rate as a function of the current stocks of domestic and foreign money and the current determinants of the demands for these monies, including domestic and foreign income and interest rates. The second class of monetary models, which has been more widely used in theoretical work, focuses on the influence on the current exchange rate of the expected future path of money supplies and of factors affecting money demands.

In contrast, unexpected changes in the prices of such assets should reflect new information that changes expectations concerning the economic conditions that affect the ultimate demand for and supply of the asset. 3 The Asset Market View of Exchange Rate Determination The gross similarities between the behavior of exchange rates and the behavior of the prices of other assets traded in highly organized markets suggests a common general approach to analyzing the behavior of such asset prices. The essential elements of this general approach, as applied to exchange rates, may be represented in a simple theoretical model that relates 7.

3 The Real Exchange Rate as an Asset Price The balance of payments equilibrium condition (23) that is the essential ingredient in deriving the results (24)-(28) is, on its face, a flow market equilibrium condition rather than an asset market equilibrium condition. Nevertheless, this equilibrium condition implies a solution for q(r)-which is identified with (the logarithm of) the real exchange rate-that may be thought of in two distinct ways as the expression for an asset price. 28 The essential idea of these models is that the momentary equilibrium real exchange rate is determined by the price at which domestic residents are willing to hold their existing net position in foreign assets.

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